India’s agricultural export sector has entered 2026 with remarkable momentum. Official data from the Agricultural and Processed Food Products Export Development Authority (APEDA) confirms that total basmati rice exports surged 18% year-on-year in Q1 2026, reaching a record ₹6,800 crore.
The surge is being driven by a convergence of structural factors: strong rupee-dollar dynamics, robust import demand from GCC retail chains, tightened supply from Pakistan (historically the second-largest basmati exporter), and the post-CEPA tariff advantage on Indian-origin grains in the UK and UAE.
Demand Drivers: Why GCC and UK Are Leading
The GCC bloc — led by UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait — now accounts for 53% of India’s total basmati exports by value. UAE alone absorbed 1.2 lakh MT of basmati in Q1 2026, a 22% jump versus the same quarter last year, reflecting both retail chain restocking and re-export activity to East Africa.
In the UK, the picture is structurally different. Post-Brexit import policy adjustments have made Indian basmati relatively more competitive versus Pakistani alternatives on tariff grounds. Several major UK retail chains have shifted sourcing toward Indian-origin grain, locking in forward contracts through Q3 2026.
FOB Price Analysis: Mundra Port, Q1 2026
Consistent with the demand surge, FOB prices across all processing grades of basmati have appreciated meaningfully over the past twelve months. The most significant move has been in 1121 Steam, where FOB Mundra prices rose $55/MT YoY to settle at $1,180/MT.
Outlook & Sourcing Recommendations
Forward-booking volumes for Q3 2026 are running 35% ahead of last year — suggesting sustained import demand through the new-crop harvest window. Sourcing teams should lock in forward contracts early. New-crop premium grades are expected to be tight by September.
- Q1 2026 basmati exports up 18% YoY at ₹6,800 crore.
- GCC + UK together = 62% of value share.
- FOB Mundra prices up $40–55/MT YoY across all grades.
- Forward-booking volumes for Q3 2026 are 35% ahead of last year.
| Grade | FOB Mundra ($/MT) | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|
| 1121 Basmati (Steam) | $1,180 | +5.2% |
| 1121 Basmati (Raw) | $1,080 | +4.8% |
| 1509 Basmati (Steam) | $960 | +3.1% |
Forward-booking volumes for Q3 2026 are running 35% ahead of last year — suggesting sustained import demand through the new-crop harvest window.
| 1121 Steam | $1,180 | up |
| 1121 Raw | $1,080 | up |
| Cumin (ASTA) | $3,200 | down |
| Yellow Maize | $248 | up |
| Apr 30 | APEDA Annual Renewal |
| May 15 | EU MRL Update — Spices & Millets |
| Jun 01 | New Crop Basmati — Pricing Season |
| Jun 10 | GCC Customs Update — Dubai Portal |
| Trade & Export | India-UAE CEPA: Agro Exporters Gain Zero-Duty Access on 97% of Tariff Lines | # |
| Market Updates | Cumin Seeds: Global Shortage Pushes FOB Prices to a 3-Year High | # |
| Regulatory | EU MRL Updates 2026: New Pesticide Residue Limits | # |